Prediction
Crude Oil WTI will rise over the next 2-4 weeks, with Commercial Hedgers at the 94th percentile and an 80-point divergence between smart money and crowd
Commercial Hedgers at 94th percentile · Managed Money at 14th percentile · 5-year range.
Key points
- Commercial Hedgers — 94th percentile, Managed Money — 14th percentile
- Open Interest +0.32% month-over-month
- Extreme positioning persisting 104 weeks
Why it matters
The convergence of Commercial Hedgers and Managed Money positions, along with momentum and trends, matters as it indicates a potential trend reversal. When Commercial Hedgers have been at such extreme percentiles in the past, it has often preceded significant price movements, but historical data is not available in this case to provide a specific win rate or average change.
What confirms the thesis
Commercial positioning stays elevated and Crude Oil WTI holds or reclaims its recent range.
What invalidates the thesis
Commercial accumulation fades quickly or Crude Oil WTI breaks to fresh short-term lows.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Disclaimer.