Prediction
Copper is expected to decline over the next 2-4 weeks as Commercial Hedgers' bearish positioning and the large divergence between smart money and crowd sentiment suggest a potential reversal.
Commercial Hedgers at 6th percentile · Managed Money at 90th percentile · 5-year range.
Key points
- Commercial Hedgers — 6th percentile, Managed Money — 90th percentile
- Open Interest -6.5% month-over-month
- Commercial Hedgers' bearish positioning persisting
Why it matters
The convergence of Commercial Hedgers' bearish positioning and the large divergence between smart money and crowd sentiment matters because it suggests a potential reversal in the market. When Commercial Hedgers have been this bearish in the past, Copper has typically followed with a decline.
What confirms the thesis
Commercial pressure stays elevated and Copper fails to reclaim recent resistance.
What invalidates the thesis
Commercial pressure fades quickly or Copper pushes through recent resistance.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Disclaimer.