Prediction
Lumber will rise over the next 2-4 weeks as Commercials, at the 92nd percentile, and Speculators, at the 13th percentile, indicate a strong bullish signal
Commercials at 92th percentile · Speculators at 13th percentile · 5-year range.
Key points
- Commercials — 92nd percentile, Speculators — 13th percentile
- Open Interest -10.5% month-over-month
- Commercials momentum -4.5% this month
Why it matters
The convergence of Commercials and Speculators at extreme percentiles, combined with declining Open Interest, indicates a potential reversal in the market. Typically, when Commercials are positioned at such high percentiles, it signals a strong uptrend in the commodity, which may follow in the coming weeks.
What confirms the thesis
Commercial positioning stays elevated and Lumber holds or reclaims its recent range.
What invalidates the thesis
Commercial accumulation fades quickly or Lumber breaks to fresh short-term lows.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Disclaimer.