Prediction
Copper is expected to decline over the next 2-4 weeks as the Crowd sits near its longest positioning in 5 years, indicating crowded longs are likely to unwind, while Smart Money is near its shortest positioning, further supporting the bearish outlook.
Key points
- Smart Money — 4th percentile, Crowd — 97th percentile
- Smart Money moved -1.5 percentage points this week, -0.2 percentage points this month
Why it matters
The Crowd is at the 97th percentile of its 5-year history, indicating extreme long positioning, while Smart Money is at the 4th percentile, its shortest positioning in 5 years. This setup suggests that crowded longs will unwind, leading to a price decline.
What confirms the thesis
Smart money stays near its short extreme and Copper fails to reclaim recent resistance.
What invalidates the thesis
Smart money covers its shorts quickly or Copper pushes through recent resistance.
For informational purposes only. Not investment advice. Disclaimer.